Fact checked by Overview of Our 2025 UFC Betting Strategy Manual
In search of something particular? Utilize these links to navigate directly to sections that elucidate the essentials of betting on UFC bouts.
- Expert UFC Betting Picks
- Available Types of UFC Bets (with tips from the pros)
- Best UFC Betting Sites
- Handicapping MMA Fighting Styles
- UFC Betting Tips for Beginners
- Expert UFC/MMA Betting Strategies
- Online UFC Betting FAQs
Professional UFC Betting Predictions and Fight Analysis
One of the simplest means to gain an advantage in the UFC wagering community is by leveraging expert insights. If you lack the time to conduct thorough research or wish to tap into the expertise of seasoned professionals, you've found the right resource. Below, we provide a link to our expert UFC and MMA betting recommendations. Even if you already have your favorite fighters for the upcoming bouts, checking expert opinions can enhance your strategy and reveal any overlooked aspects.
Types of UFC Bets Available
What’s the first step for anyone venturing into online UFC betting? Understanding the available betting options. Before you can master betting strategies and emerge victorious over the bookies, familiarizing yourself with the bet types is paramount. Here, we delve into six of the most prevalent forms of UFC bets, alongside their advantages and disadvantages, their availability, and tailored expert betting advice for each variety.
Moneyline
A UFC moneyline bet revolves around predicting which fighter will triumph in the match. The method or timing of their victory is irrelevant; your bet pays out as long as your chosen fighter wins! However, keep in mind that the payout varies based on that fighter's perceived chances of victory and public wagering patterns. If a fighter is widely favored to win or the betting public is placing heavy stakes on them, anticipate lower payout potential. Conversely, if a fighter is seen as an underdog with fewer bets placed on them, expect a more lucrative payout.
- Advantage: This is the simplest form of UFC betting, easy to grasp and place.
- Disadvantage: To achieve long-term success, you must comprehend the value behind your bets.
- Availability: It ranks as the most popular UFC betting option; accessible at most platforms.
Round Over/Under
The round over/under wager allows you to predict the expected duration of a UFC fight. Generally, for three-round matches, the line is typically set at either 1½ rounds or 2½ rounds. In your bet, you can opt for either under (indicating a shorter fight duration) or over (indicating a longer fight). For instance: If the line for an upcoming fight is set at over/under 2½ rounds, placing an under bet suggests you believe the fight will conclude before the midway point of the third round, while an over bet implies the fight will last at least until that halfway point or that a decision will be reached. The outcome of the match does not affect the bet, and similar to moneyline wagers, payouts differ based on public sentiment and the perceived likelihood of outcomes.
- Advantage: This bet allows you to wager on the fight dynamics without needing to choose a winner.
- Disadvantage: As with moneyline bets, a good grasp of value is necessary for long-term winnings.
- Availability: It is quite popular and can be found at most UFC wagering sites.
Go the Distance
A 'go the distance' wager focuses on whether a UFC fight will last until the end of the final round or be stopped prematurely. This type is advantageous for bets placed on the over in the final round, as it includes the second half of that round.
- Advantage: A more targeted betting option for those confident about fight duration.
- Disadvantage: Certain sportsbooks may impose unique regulations if a fight concludes unexpectedly due to events like a disqualification.
- Availability: This option is less commonly offered and may not be found at every UFC betting platform.
Method of Victory
Do you have an idea about the potential outcome of the fight? If you do, opting for a method of victory bet might be a wise choice. Some sportsbooks offer bets that focus solely on the winning method without requiring the selection of a winner. Others require both—choosing the winning method and the actual winner. While the latter is commonly favored, it also tends to provide better payouts.
- Advantage: A distinctive way to profit from a precise forecast.
- Con: Tougher to win
- Availability: Less common; limited to the most reputable MMA betting platforms.
Exact Round Finish
One of the most exhilarating aspects of wagering on UFC fights is the potential for sizeable returns when your predictions are spot on. One of the most lucrative bets available is the exact round finish bet. With this wager, you simply need to predict the round in which the fight will conclude. Correct guesses yield significant rewards, and many sportsbooks will require you to also predict the winner, which increases the payout!
- Advantage: Massive payouts await for highly accurate predictions.
- Disadvantage: Your prediction must be entirely accurate for a win.
- Availability: Fairly popular; accessible at leading and mid-tier UFC betting sites.
Parlays
A parlay bet groups multiple individual bets into one cohesive wager. To win the parlay, every single bet must be successful. If even one individual bet fails, the entire parlay is lost. A great feature is that many top-tier UFC betting platforms permit users to parlay bets across different sports if desired.
- Advantage: Allows for a chance to secure substantial winnings from a smaller initial stake.
- Disadvantage: Winning a parlay, especially with several legs, can be quite challenging.
- Availability: Very popular; accessible through all UFC betting applications.
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Best UFC Betting Sites
Here, you'll find the top-reviewed online sportsbooks that offer betting on the UFC. What qualifies these sites as the best? They provide a wide variety of betting options, prompt payouts, and user-friendly interfaces. Most importantly, these platforms are completely trustworthy. There really is no value in wagering if there's uncertainty about getting paid when you win, which is why we've rigorously vetted these sites to ensure your security.
Knowing which fighters to support and what kinds of bets to place constitutes only half of the equation.In previous years, your options were limited to visiting the nearest sportsbook or casino, which might have been located hundreds of miles away. Even with a nearby sportsbook, you were often restricted to their predetermined odds and betting options. This made line shopping an arduous task unless you were ready to embark on a lengthy road trip. Yet, thanks to the internet's development, everything has changed drastically. Now, online sportsbooks are widely accessible, providing a wealth of betting options, numerous perks, unmatched convenience, and essential opportunities to shop for the best betting lines to maximize your wagering potential. If you need further information on our top recommendations for genuine money UFC sportsbooks, check out our dedicated page listed below.
Handicapping MMA Fight Styles
The different fighting styles can significantly influence match outcomes in the UFC, and recognizing this can lead to potential opportunities or risks when placing bets. While it’s not necessary to take martial arts classes at a local gym, if you truly want to succeed in UFC betting, it’s crucial to grasp how each prominent fighting style may impact the fight. Understanding these styles is vital because many elite fighters start with a specific discipline and gradually incorporate additional martial arts into their training, resulting in unique skill sets that heavily influence their performance in the octagon.
Boxing
Strengths in MMA
- Fighters may possess greater knockout strength than what is typically expected in their weight division.
- Experts in cutting weight
- They excel at managing spatial dynamics in a fight, particularly using an effective jab to maintain distance.
- These fighters have experience in bridging the gap against opponents who possess a longer reach.
- Direct punches are delivered more swiftly compared to those that are thrown in a looping motion.
Weaknesses in MMA
- If a fighter finds themselves on the ground, they will face challenges in effectively using their boxing techniques.
- The same principle applies to clinching; if a fighter is unprepared to adapt, they could find themselves in a difficult position.
- Boxers usually place significant weight on their front legs to generate power for their punches. If facing an opponent with effective leg kicks, strategic adjustments may be necessary.
Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ)
Strengths in MMA
- They possess vast experience in grappling and ground work.
- In contrast to wrestlers, they feel secure even when on their back.
- They are capable of executing submissions from almost any positional advantage.
- When paired with strong striking capabilities, it becomes challenging for opponents to formulate an effective strategy.
Weaknesses in MMA
- Some Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) practitioners may be quite inexperienced when it comes to striking techniques.
- The game of BJJ evolves considerably once striking is allowed, opening up new tactical avenues.
- Certain BJJ positions may expose a fighter to increased striking opportunities.
Judo
Strengths in MMA
- Many individuals who practice judo often also have backgrounds in wrestling and BJJ.
- Judo is particularly advantageous for taking down larger or equally sized adversaries.
- They can effectively utilize unique positions out of clinch encounters that other fighters may find unfamiliar.
- They demonstrate exceptional control over their body weight in various contexts.
Weaknesses in MMA
- Practicing judo involves wearing a Gi, which might complicate the transition to MMA.
Karate
Strengths in MMA
- Fast and unorthodox striking
- Skilled in closing the distance effectively while striking and evading attacks ('stick and move') is a hallmark of their technique.
Weaknesses in MMA
- Karate competitions prioritize point-based sparring, which may necessitate finding ways to enhance strike power.
Muay Thai
Strengths in MMA
- They harness the full potential of all available striking techniques (using all eight limbs).
- Devastating elbows and knees can readily inflict cuts on their opponents.
Weaknesses in MMA
- Some Muay Thai practitioners might be relatively inexperienced when it comes to grappling.
- Certain Muay Thai fighters may develop a tendency to absorb damage rather than avoid it.
Wrestling
Strengths in MMA
- Experts in cutting weight
- This skill not only facilitates successfully taking opponents down but also assists in defending against being taken down.
- The ability to keep control over opponents is crucial, especially if the match progresses to a judges' decision; wrestlers often prevail in less exciting fights.
Weaknesses in MMA
- They might encounter difficulties when on their back against skilled BJJ fighters.
- May be very new to striking
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UFC Betting Tips for Beginners
Are you new to wagering on UFC events? Or perhaps it's been a while since you've made a real money bet on UFC fights? Below, we’ve compiled essential betting tips and strategies for those just starting out. Keep in mind that while these tips are geared towards novice bettors, they can still provide valuable insights for more experienced and committed UFC bettors.
Check out the Value Section within the Expert Advice Below.
Successful betting in the UFC isn't solely about selecting who will win or lose. It's crucial to recognize that not all bets yield the same returns. There may be instances where you strongly believe a fighter will succeed, yet the bet may not be strategically sound.
Don’t Bet Every Fight
If your primary aim in betting on the UFC is simply for entertainment, you can overlook this advice. However, if you're serious about making money through UFC betting, here's what you should know: only place bets on fights where you have a solid prediction of their outcomes and when the odds reflect a favorable expected value. This could mean deciding to abstain from betting on highly publicized main events. Don’t place a bet unless you have an advantage.
Don’t Fully Rely on Statistics
While statistics play a pivotal role in UFC betting, they do not convey the entire story. It's essential to also review fight footage to identify subtleties that could influence the fight's outcome. Moreover, ensure that you are examining the right statistics.
Review Your Betting Tickets for Precision
Whether you choose to place bets in person or online through UFC betting platforms, verifying the accuracy of your tickets is paramount. Before and immediately after placing a bet, take a moment to ensure all the details are correct. Confirm that you are wagering on the right side, the amount is accurate, the odds are correct, and that it pertains to the appropriate event. Mistakes do occasionally occur.
Shop Lines at the Top UFC Betting Sites
As previously mentioned, obtaining the right UFC odds can be crucial in deciding whether to make a bet and determining your potential winnings. Interestingly, different sportsbooks may offer varying odds for the same bet. It’s advisable to explore several sportsbooks prior to placing your bet on a UFC match, as this enables you to secure a higher potential payout for the same wager, a significant advantage.
Avoid Falling for Unfounded Hype
Following the UFC is thrilling. The excitement can stem from the action itself or the captivating narratives that unfold off the mat. Keep this in mind: the commentators and MMA media are primarily focused on providing entertainment and generating excitement. This could lead to elevated hype around a fighter with an engaging backstory (like a comeback). However, this excitement may not accurately reflect the true likelihood of that fighter's victory.
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Expert UFC Betting Strategies
Value, Value, Value
The distinction between novice UFC bettors and seasoned pros lies in the ability to recognize and take advantage of value. Just because you believe a fighter will win doesn’t mean placing a bet is inherently wise. It's essential to assess whether the potential returns justify the risks associated with the bet.
When you identify UFC bets that offer higher payouts than what would be expected based on the probability of that wager, that’s where you’ve discovered value (and a worthwhile bet).
Let’s clarify this with an example. Consider an upcoming fight between Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou. Here’s the betting line for this fight:
If you believe Ngannou is favored to win, is placing a bet viable? It depends. There are two methods to evaluate this. First, you could develop an algorithm to calculate the percentage chance each fighter has of winning . Then compare the results of your algorithm with the offered odds to locate any disparities—this is what we refer to as value. The second approach is almost identical but takes a less mathematical path: consider how many times each fighter would win if they fought 100 times. For instance, if you think Ngannou would win 65 of those matches out of 100, this indicates that you believe he has a 65% chance of winning. Next, convert the payout odds of (-140) to an implied probability using an online calculator. This calculation shows that (-140) translates to a 58.3% likelihood. Therefore, if your prediction of a 65% chance is accurate, this presents a fantastic betting opportunity. You would be compensated as if the bet wins only 58% of the time (suggesting it is rarer, leading to more potential earnings), yet it's actually plausible 65% of the time. Thus, you stand to gain more than you should, ensuring profitability over time. Let’s take it further, assuming you wager on this matchup 20 times and Ngannou emerges victorious 13 times (65%). But it’s worth noting that you would be placing a bet at odds of (-140) for each of these contests.
| Bet # | Odds | Bet Size | Potential Profit | Outcome | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | ($100) |
| 2 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | ($100) |
| 3 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | ($100) |
| 4 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | ($100) |
| 5 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | ($100) |
| 6 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | ($100) |
| 7 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | ($100) |
| 8 | (-140) | $100 | $71.43 | Loss | $71.43 |
| 9 | Strengths in MMA | $100 | $71.43 | Weaknesses in MMA | $71.43 |
| 10 | Karate | $100 | $71.43 | Karate | $71.43 |
| 11 | Strengths in MMA | $100 | $71.43 | Fast and unorthodox striking | $71.43 |
| 12 | Weaknesses in MMA | $100 | $71.43 | Muay Thai | $71.43 |
| 13 | Muay Thai | $100 | $71.43 | Strengths in MMA | $71.43 |
| 14 | Weaknesses in MMA | $100 | $71.43 | Wrestling | $71.43 |
| 15 | Wrestling | $100 | $71.43 | Strengths in MMA | $71.43 |
| 16 | Experts in cutting weight | $100 | $71.43 | Weaknesses in MMA | $71.43 |
| 17 | May be very new to striking | $100 | $71.43 | Back to Top ? | $71.43 |
| 18 | UFC Betting Tips for Beginners | $100 | $71.43 | Don’t Bet Every Fight | $71.43 |
| 19 | Don’t Fully Rely on Statistics | $100 | $71.43 | For Example: | $71.43 |
| 20 | UFC Bet Slip From MyBookie | $100 | $71.43 | Shop Lines at the Top UFC Betting Sites | $71.43 |
| Back to Top ? | $2,000 | $1,428.60 | $228.59 |
This clearly illustrates that this is a bet with value. You may be thinking, 'But I can’t place bets on the same fight 20 times!' And you are correct.
Expert UFC Betting Strategies
UFC fighters must reach a specific weight limit to compete, ensuring fairness between opponents. If a fighter fails to make weight, they are given a limited timeframe to achieve that weight (typically a few hours). Should they be unable to do so, it's up to their opponent to decide whether to proceed with the fight. In such cases, the fighter who missed the weight usually forfeits a portion of their earnings. When contemplating bets involving fighters who miss weight, essential questions arise.
- If the discrepancy is minor , it may indicate they exerted considerable effort to make weight, which could lead to fatigue (potential cardio issues).
- If the discrepancy is major , more scrutiny is warranted. Did the fighter have an undisclosed injury affecting their training? Did they undergo a lackluster training regimen with poor discipline?
- How significant will the weight difference be in the fight? Heavier fighters might have an advantage in ground control and clinch scenarios. However, if the additional weight stems from a lack of dedication, how will that affect their endurance?
- Does the fighter have a history of missing weight? If yes, how did they perform in previous bouts? If not, dive deep into what makes this instance different.
Over the past eight years, fighters who failed to make weight in the UFC recorded a record of 51 wins to 48 losses. Generally, 53% of the time, the fighter who made weight triumphed. If you had placed a $10 bet on every fighter who didn't make weight, you would have incurred a loss of approximately $73, translating to a -7% return on investment.
Stipe Miocic
A prominent discussion among bettors in the UFC is whether betting on underdogs is wise. While it’s essential to evaluate each bout on its own merits, you can uncover valuable insights by examining various statistics. Let’s begin our exploration with that information, and afterward, we’ll consider additional factors to keep in mind when wagering on underdogs in the UFC.
In the UFC overall, underdogs have emerged victorious 35% of the time over the past eight years (with a record of 1115 wins to 2066 losses).
When you analyze potential earnings from the odds, the advantage appears minimal on both sides, reinforcing our point about treating each match as a unique event. However, by assessing return on investment based on how significant the favorite or underdog is, you can begin to identify some trends.
- Competitors rated between +186 and +150 odds have a record of 192 victories to 275 losses , resulting in a win rate of 41%. The expected probability derived from these odds is 37%, suggesting that if you placed bets on all underdogs in this category, you would realize a 4% ROI.
- For fighters with odds from +150 to +122, their record is 270 wins and 331 losses , which translates to a win percentage of 45%. The implied odds probability here is 42%, indicating that backing all underdogs in this bracket would yield a 3% ROI.
- From the perspective of favorites, the data indicates a favorable ROI for all competitors involved:
- Francis Ngannou
- -140
- Bet #
- Odds
- Bet Size
- Potential Profit
- Outcome
In most UFC matches, you will encounter either an underdog or a favorite. In instances where the odds are closely matched or it’s essentially even, feel free to apply your standard betting strategies. But how should you approach situations where one fighter is a clear favorite or underdog? Here are some betting recommendations to consider when evaluating those matchups.
- Can you envision a clear route to victory for the underdog? If you find it difficult to describe how they might secure a win, that’s likely a sign that it’s not a smart bet.
- Calculate the implied probability for each fighter’s chance of winning, as previously discussed. This method is the most reliable for determining whether a bet on one side is justified.
- Be particularly cautious of hype surrounding fighters . Media and commentators often need to create excitement around a fight, regardless of how lopsided it may appear.
(-140)
So, the question remains—do the experienced veterans hold the advantage, or do the younger fighters dominate? This is a significant inquiry to consider when placing your bets on the UFC. Let’s start with data and analyze it. Over the past eight years, here are the win rates categorized by the fighters' ages across all of MMA:
| Loss | (-140) | Loss | (-140) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loss | 78 | 50 | 61% |
| (-140) | 1261 | 889 | 59% |
| Loss | 1913 | 1828 | 51% |
| (-140) | 1106 | 1278 | 46% |
| Loss | 303 | 414 | 42% |
While these statistics from the UFC are indeed useful, they do not provide a complete picture. Our primary interest lies in understanding how the performance of older fighters stacks up against their younger counterparts (and vice versa).
- When fighters have an age gap of five years or more, the younger athlete prevails 61% of the time (with a record of 782 to 467).
- For fighters facing opponents who are ten years apart in age, the younger competitor wins 64% of the time (reported as 136 wins to 73 losses).
It appears that youth does have an advantage in the long term. However, it’s crucial to assess each fight on a case-by-case basis, paying particular attention to seasoned fighters who may leverage their experience and strategy to conquer challenges.
Training Camps, Coaches, and Training Partners
A key aspect that is often neglected by bettors in the UFC is the support network surrounding each fighter. The adage 'iron sharpens iron' should definitely be a consideration as you make your selections. There is a vast amount of information to explore regarding fight camps, coaching teams, and training partners, and today we aim to provide numerous suggestions on where to focus your research.
- What is the caliber of their training partners? Are they honing their skills alongside fighters who are potentially stronger than they are?
- How comparable are their training partners to the opponents they will face? While training with elite strikers might be advantageous, it could be a disadvantage when going up against an elite wrestler.
- How skilled are the coaches in devising a successful game plan? Do they maintain a strong win-loss record with all the fighters they train?
- Has the fighter made any modifications to their training camp this time? Are those changes likely to be beneficial or detrimental?
- Where are they training? Are they utilizing facilities at higher elevations that could enhance their cardio, especially if the fight takes place in a high-altitude setting?
(-140)
The exciting thing about the UFC is the constant influx of new talent getting their chance to shine. This has become particularly evident with the Contender Series and the Ultimate Fighter. But how do these newcomers perform when pitted against seasoned veterans? What specifics should you consider when betting on these burgeoning fighters? Let’s delve into that.
- Over the last eight years, 209 fighters were able to secure victories in their debuts, while 277 were not as fortunate. This results in a 43% success rate for debutants.
- The highest success rate among debut fighters is observed in the middleweight division, boasting an impressive 65%.
Here’s a breakdown of win percentages among debuting fighters sorted by weight class:
| Loss | (-140) | Loss | (-140) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loss | 7 | 5 | 58% |
| Strengths in MMA | 10 | 6 | 63% |
| Weaknesses in MMA | 11 | 6 | 65% |
| Karate | 17 | 18 | 49% |
| Karate | 18 | 10 | 64% |
| Strengths in MMA | 18 | 10 | 64% |
| Fast and unorthodox striking | 11 | 17 | 39% |
| Weaknesses in MMA | 5 | 6 | 45% |
| Muay Thai | 2 | 6 | 25% |
| Muay Thai | 8 | 10 | 44% |
[ Strengths in MMA ]
Weaknesses in MMA
Understanding how to effectively bet on UFC bouts can be a challenging endeavor filled with numerous inquiries. Here are some commonly asked questions that have arisen over the years:
