How Do Betting Odds Work?Understanding Betting Odds
Sports Betting Odds Explained
Sports betting odds reveal the probability of a particular outcome occurring in a sporting event. These odds indicate your potential winnings based on the amount you choose to wager. Generally, higher potential returns suggest lower chances of the event happening. For instance, odds that promise $170 from a $10 bet on the Denver Broncos defeating the Washington Commanders imply that such an outcome is quite unlikely.
It’s important to distinguish between actual probabilities (real odds) and the odds typically provided by sportsbooks (implied odds).
True Odds vs. Implied Odds
Real odds are the figures set by a sportsbook that do not factor in a house advantage. They represent the genuine probability of an outcome occurring.
Implied odds, on the other hand, reflect the likelihood of an outcome occurring but also incorporate the sportsbook’s margin, often referred to as juice or vig.
Example of True vs. Implied Odds
Take the coin toss at the Super Bowl as an example. A bookmaker might assess the odds of it landing heads as even, or +100, which constitutes the true odds. However, the odds presented to you on the betting platform could be -105, representing the implied odds.
In this scenario, you would gain 95 cents for every dollar you bet. The remaining 5 cents is the sportsbook's juice, ensuring they profit regardless of the event's outcome.
How To Read Betting Odds
While it takes a little time to learn how to interpret betting odds, eventually, every bettor discovers the type of odds that suits them best.
Being able to read odds in sports betting This knowledge enables you to quickly identify which teams are favorites and which are considered underdogs. Additionally, it empowers you to recognize which outcomes present valuable betting opportunities, as well as instances where sportsbooks might have miscalculated odds, allowing you to take advantage of such errors. This is crucial for finding value in your bets. .
Sportsbooks including BetUS , MyBookie and Bovada allows bettors to choose the format of odds they wish to view on betting sites. There are three primary types of odds: American, fractional, and decimal. Here’s a closer look at how each type functions:
1.American Odds
American odds convey the potential payout from a $100 bet on a given outcome. They operate like an index; in this case, higher odds imply a lesser likelihood of winning (and consequently larger potential payouts if your bet wins).
The odds are shown in either a positive (+) or negative (-) format. Positive odds illustrate the profit from a $100 bet, while negative odds indicate the amount you must wager to earn $100.
Here are some examples that clarify how American odds function:
| Sport | Odds | Stake | Winning Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | +300 on Ravens to beat Colts | $100 | $300 profit + $100 stake = $400 |
| MLB | +175 on Padres 1.5 run line vs Braves | $10 | $17.50 profit + $10 stake = $27.50 |
| NBA | -200 on Heat to beat Knicks | $200 | $100 profit + $200 stake = $300 |
| NHL | -300 on Maple Leafs to beat Oilers | $50 | $150 profit + $50 stake = $200 |
American odds are applicable in all sports, not just in prominent American leagues like the NFL and MLB. If you tend to bet $100, American odds are an ideal choice.
How to Calculate Winnings Using American Odds
Calculating your winnings with American odds is quite straightforward. For instance, if you plan to bet $100 on the game between the Ravens and Colts, the odds are as follows: moneyline bet has two options:- Baltimore Ravens (+300)
- Indianapolis Colts (-200)
2.Decimal Odds
Decimal odds reflect the total return on a $1 stake. The higher the number, the larger the potential payout, albeit with increased risk. Conversely, lower odds indicate a higher likelihood of winning, yet with reduced profit margins.
Your total return is calculated as stake plus profit, indicating that decimal odds of 2.00 correlate with a 50% win probability. Odds exceeding this suggest a less than even chance of winning, while lower odds imply a growing likelihood of success.
Here’s how decimal odds are illustrated:
| Sport | Odds | Stake | Winning Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 4.00 on Ravens to beat Colts | $100 | $300 profit + $100 stake = $400 |
| MLB | 1.75 on Orioles 1.5 run line vs Yankees | $10 | $7.50 profit + $10 stake = $17.50 |
| NBA | 1.50 on Heat to beat Knicks | $200 | $100 profit + $200 stake = $300 |
| NHL | 1.33 on Maple Leafs to beat Oilers | $50 | $150 profit + $50 stake = $200 |
Calculating Winnings Using Decimal Odds
Decimal odds represent your total return if you place a $1 bet. If you plan to stake more or less than $1 or wish to gauge your potential profit, a bit of arithmetic will be needed. Here’s what a typical MLB moneyline might look like for a game featuring Baltimore versus Tampa Bay:- Baltimore Orioles (1.80)
- Tampa Bay Rays (2.20)
3.Fractional Odds
Fractional odds present the most intricate type of odds you'll encounter in a sportsbook. Understanding these odds requires a good grasp on basic fractions.
Essentially, fractional odds indicate the potential profit from a stake. The number on the left side of the slash shows your potential gain, while the number on the right side represents your stake.
Here’s an example from horse racing :
- Example One:For example, if you place a $1 bet on a horse to win a race with odds of 3/1 and it wins, you'll gain $3 in profit along with your $1 stake.
Unfortunately, this is where the simplicity of fractional odds ends. If a horse exhibits better than 50% winning likelihood, the odds might drop:
- Example Two:If you bet $1 on a horse at 1/3 odds and it wins, you will receive 33 cents in profit plus your $1 stake.
Similar to negative American odds of -300, you'd need to wager $3 to achieve a $1 profit. This is the origin of the phrase 'odds on.'
What, then, should you make of odds like 5/2 or 15/8? The calculation remains the same, requiring you to divide the left figure by the right one. A $1 bet at 5/2 results in a $2.50 profit, while a $1 bet at 15/8 yields $1.87 in profit.
Here are a few instances demonstrating fractional odds in practice:
| Sport | Odds | Stake | Winning Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 3/1 on Ravens to beat Colts | $100 | $300 profit + $100 stake = $400 |
| MLB | 8/11 on Orioles 1.5 run line vs Yankees | $10 | $7.30 profit + $10 stake = $17.50 |
| NBA | 1/2 on Heat to beat Knicks | $200 | $100 profit + $200 stake = $300 |
| NHL | 1/3 on Maple Leafs to beat Oilers | $50 | $150 profit + $50 stake = $200 |
While most sportsbooks provide fractional odds across various sports, fewer bettors choose to utilize them nowadays. Nonetheless, they remain common in horse racing, dog racing, and harness racing.
Calculating Winnings Using Fractional Odds
You can identify which team is favored and which is the underdog by examining the larger number relative to the slash. For example, if you're considering a $10 bet on the Golden State Warriors defeating the 76ers, here are the odds:- Golden State Warriors(1/4)
- Philadelphia 76ers(7/1)
Sports Betting Odds Calculator
If the calculation of a bet seems too challenging, don’t fret! The Sports Geek is here to assist you.
Use our sports betting odds calculator You can swiftly assess your potential profits and risks based on all three odds types and perform calculations with ease, helping you make confident betting decisions.
Calculator
How to Calculate Implied Probability (Break-Even Percentage)
Calculating implied probability provides insights into how likely a bet is to be successful. This perspective can aid you in assessing the fairness and value of the odds. Implied probability is also referred to as break-even percentage.
Break-even percentage It quantifies the likelihood of winning or losing money over time. If your break-even percentage is 50%, you would win one out of every two bets, while losing the other half.
As the percentage increases, so does your chance of winning. However, if profits remain lower, the percentage tends to rise. This requires bettors to find a balance that feels comfortable between potential profits and risk.
Implied Probability Using Positive and Negative Odds
As mentioned previously, American odds can be either positive or negative. Here are some calculations you can perform to determine each's implied probability:
Positive Odds
- Formula: 100 / (positive odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability
- Example: If you place a bet on the Cardinals to defeat the Reds at +200, your implied probability would be: 100 / (200 + 100) * 100 = 33.3
Negative Odds
- Formula: negative odds / (negative odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability
- Example: If you bet on the Reds to triumph over the Cardinals at -180, your implied probability would be: 175 / (175 + 100) * 100 = 63.6%
Implied Probability Using Decimal Odds
You can easily ascertain implied probability when using decimal odds through a simple calculation.
- Formula: (1 / decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability
- Example: If you wager on the Giants to beat the 49ers at 2.50 odds, your implied probability would be: (1 / 2.50) * 100 = 40%
Implied Probability Using Fractional Odds
Calculating implied probability with fractional odds tends to feel more like traditional math you might have learned in school, in comparison to other odds types. Remember that the numerator is on the top left of the fraction, while the denominator is on the bottom right. Here’s how you can work out implied probability with fractional odds:
- Formula: denominator / (denominator + numerator) * 100 = implied probability
- Example: If you place a bet on the Heat to beat the Knicks with odds of 2/1, your implied probability would be: 1 / (1 + 2) * 100 = 33.3%
