2025 New Jersey Governor Election Betting Odds: Is a Republican Upset Possible?

In my view, Sherrill represents the most stable option among the candidates. She has largely avoided negative public attention and doesn’t carry much political baggage. In today's American political landscape, steering clear of scandals and controversies is no small feat!

Moreover, Sherrill’s military background as a Navy helicopter pilot will resonate positively with voters. Her experience as a federal prosecutor and her tenure in Congress since 2019 adds to her credentials. She has also been a vocal opponent of former President Donald Trump during her time in Washington.

🔥Rep. Mikie Sherrill did not hold back:

"You should never divulge targeting information. Doing so puts lives at risk!\"

With her military service and previous role as a Russian policy officer, she is unequivocal—Trump’s administration jeopardized American lives, and they are fully aware of that.

Kamala Harris won New Jersey with 52% of the vote, so any candidate who takes a strong stance against Trump is likely to gain traction in the state. Additionally, Sherrill is likely to attract support from both moderate and progressive Democrats. Therefore, it's not surprising to me that Sherrill maintains a significant lead over her rivals in recent polls. pic.twitter.com/a130QYWI3t

— VoteVets (@votevets) March 26, 2025

Currently, Sherrill is the only candidate with over 20% support. She enjoys 28% of the vote, while those undecided account for 24%. Fulop, Baraka, and Josh Gottheimer each sit at 11%, placing Sherrill in a favorable position.

According to the latest May 2025 Emerson College Polling Jersey City’s Mayor has entered the governor's race and is garnering some public support. It's not unusual to see Fulop signs dotted across New Jersey's neighborhoods.

NJ gubernatorial candidate Steven Fulop believes that his experience as Jersey City’s mayor equips him for success in this race.

However, when it comes to betting odds for the New Jersey governor, Fulop isn’t leading, nor do the polls suggest a significant chance for him. Although he is regarded as a secondary contender, his odds lag behind Sherrill's. Even before her campaign launch, Sherrill had the advantage, making it difficult for Fulop from the start. https://t.co/l2qThKdHmy pic.twitter.com/9TnN9LJeeA

— Eyewitness News (@ABC7NY) June 4, 2025

Fulop has held the mayorship but lacks experience on the national stage. His campaign focuses on enhancing the transport infrastructure and making life more affordable for residents—for instance, he is proposing reforms to

a property tax relief initiative for senior citizens. platform His proposals sound appealing, and while Fulop may not be the least favorable candidate, he doesn't have the public recognition that Sherrill commands within the Democratic Party. Nevertheless, it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up closer in November than current polling suggests, although he faces a challenging path ahead. Fulop has also faced scrutiny due to several Stay NJ Baraka has gained some favorable public perception among Democrats after being arrested while protesting at an ICE detention facility, but does that make him a viable option in your predictions for the New Jersey gubernatorial race? With an implied probability of just 6.7% to secure the Democratic nomination, Baraka will need a miracle to pull off a victory.

The updated odds for the New Jersey gubernatorial primary lean in Fulop’s favor as the second best option. However, I personally believe that the actual difference between him and the frontrunner isn't as wide as currently indicated in the betting markets. corruption reports , which he responded to as ‘old news’.

Baraka commenced his campaign as the Mayor of Newark, a role he has filled since 2014, successfully winning re-election in both 2018 and 2022. Even though early polls indicated Baraka was leading in

he has struggled to maintain his momentum against Sherrill.

Nonetheless, Baraka appears to enjoy strong support from Newark residents, who have rallied behind his recent campaign efforts. According to Fairleigh Dickinson University, favorability ratings indicate they plan to back Baraka in the gubernatorial primary.

JUST IN: Newark Mayor Ras Baraka has initiated legal action against Alina Habba, the acting U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, claiming malicious prosecution following his arrest outside an ICE facility last month. 51% of Newark residents He is well-regarded among Democrats and could perform better in the primary than current forecasts suggest. Again,

his protests outside an immigration detention facility against Trump’s policies may resonate positively with certain groups of voters, but any boost from this incident will likely diminish quickly. https://t.co/OixJKGU3Nq pic.twitter.com/U6OeYzZC8F

— ABC News (@ABC) June 3, 2025

If you like the idea of betting on an underdog, consider including Baraka in your predictions for the New Jersey gubernatorial race! He appears to be the only candidate capable of challenging Sherrill. Baraka’s arrest The U.S. Representative for New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District faces a tough contest in the gubernatorial primary! Gottheimer's odds stand at +2500, equating to just a 3.8% implied probability.

I understand this rate, as Gottheimer lacks significant prospects for the governorship. If voters do not back Sherrill, they will likely turn to Baraka or Fulop instead. Even those who may appreciate Gottheimer as a candidate are likely to look elsewhere due to the generally low confidence in his campaign.

While Gottheimer serves in Washington like Sherrill, he does not present the same comprehensive appeal or charm. The Democratic Party does not view him as a serious contender, nor do I. He simply lacks the charisma to stand out.

He might believe his approach is compelling, but his campaign ad also misses the mark. The advertisement, which relies heavily on AI generation, portrays him stepping into a boxing ring to ‘fight’ Trump. He’s attempting to leverage an anti-Trump stance and a promise to reduce property taxes, though the other candidates share similar focuses.

Gottheimer is a candidate that I would recommend dropping off your list, as his chances of winning the primary appear to be significantly lower than the 3.8% implied probability suggests.

It’s important to note that as of now, odds for the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race during the state primaries are not available. Five candidates are in the running for the party's nomination, so let’s briefly review potential Republican representatives:

Jack Ciattarelli is the leading Republican choice, having gained support following Donald Trump’s endorsement. Recent polls have shown favorable responses for the 63-year-old.

Ciattarelli was already the favorite before Trump's backing, which has only strengthened his position. He previously ran against Murphy in the 2021 gubernatorial election. Trump’s endorsement Although he lost to Murphy, who captured 51.2% of the vote, Ciattarelli presented a challenging campaign against his Democratic opponent. Trump’s endorsement should bolster his appeal among Republican voters, as evident from recent polling.

which has shown considerable support for Ciattarelli as the Republican candidate. This places him in a formidable position compared to his closest competitor, likely assuring his success. —

Jun 9th, 2025 1:21pm EDT New Jersey Governor Odds

Spaeda, a former radio host and chair of the College Republican National Committee, seems to emerge as a secondary choice for Republicans. I'm not completely dismissing him, but current polls show that he is trailing significantly behind Ciattarelli.

With Spaeda trailing 31 points behind the clear favorite, the prospect of a comeback appears slim. Still, Republicans who are less aligned with Trump may opt to support Spadea.

BetUS PARTY He asserts he aims to reclaim New Jersey from "the liberals and weak Republicans who are destroying it, and save our state...\". Though he presents himself as an alternative with a solid stance, winning over voters will require substantial effort.

I am a populist, common-sense conservative focused on parental rights, supporting small businesses, and putting an end to the sanctuary state.

Forecasts, Odds, and Betting Tips for the 2025 Governor's Race in New Jersey

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2025 Governor's Race Odds in New Jersey: Is there Potential for a Republican Surprise? -700 Republicans

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2025 New Jersey Governor Race Odds: Is a Republican Upset Possible?

The recently published odds for the New Jersey gubernatorial race reveal some compelling numbers. Although the Democrats seem to be in a strong position, could there be a surprising turn of events for the Republicans?

In my analysis of the latest odds for the gubernatorial race, I delve into the primary elections and finalize my predictions for the New Jersey governor! ODDS The New Jersey gubernatorial election odds presented here are provided by

The Democratic candidates are heavily favored at -700 in the New Jersey governor race, which translates to an implied probability of 87.5% chance of victory over the Republicans, who sit at +400. Mikie Sherrill

-800 Steven Fulop

With the current Governor Phil Murphy term-limited to two consecutive terms, a new leader will be selected in November. The odds for the New Jersey governor race at the

suggest that the Democrats are likely to secure another victory following Murphy's second term.

Odds for the Democratic Primary in the New Jersey Gubernatorial Race

The following odds for the New Jersey Democratic primary election are provided by

Michelle \"Mikie\" Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, with her odds soaring to -800 over the past month.

According to the latest betting odds for the 2025 gubernatorial election in New Jersey, Sherrill holds an impressive 88.9% implied probability of receiving the highest number of votes in the primaries. She is leading significantly and only needs to finalize her success at the voting booths, as indicated by the odds.