2025 NBA MVP Odds – Can Jokić Catch “SGA”?

2025 NBA MVP Odds – Can Jokić Catch “SGA”?

The betting odds for the NBA MVP title in the upcoming 2024-25 season feature familiar frontrunners. Nikola Jokić from Denver has clinched the title three times in the past four years. However, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has surged to challenge the reigning MVP and is now the leading candidate for his inaugural MVP win!

I will share my insights into the current MVP odds in the NBA, with a particular focus on the remaining two contenders. Make sure to read through to the end for my prediction regarding the MVP winner and my suggested betting choice!

2025 NBA MVP Odds

PLAYER ODDS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) -5000
Nikola Jokić (DEN) +1300

The betting lines heavily favor Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from Oklahoma City, who is currently pegged at -5000 for the MVP award. NBA betting sites ! The talented player from the Thunder boasts an impressive 98% implied probability of securing his first MVP award on April 9, a jump from 85.7% recorded on March 14!

With eight games remaining, Oklahoma City has secured the top seed in the Western Conference, maintaining a two-game advantage over Cleveland for the league's best overall record!

Nikola Jokić of Denver, now at +1300, is making a compelling effort to keep the MVP race alive but likely faces an uphill battle due to voter fatigue from prior wins.

The three-time MVP holds an implied chance of winning at 7.1% , which is a modest increase from 6.7% noted on March 31. Nonetheless, the Nuggets trail Oklahoma City by 18 games in the Northwest Division, occupying the fifth position in the Western Conference amidst a tight contest with various teams. Subsequently on April 8, the Nuggets fired Michael Malone and Calvin Booth, who serves as their head coach and general manager, respectively.

The MVP odds displayed above are sourced from Bovada , with additional player options available at the sportsbook. You can find this particular market by navigating to Sports > Basketball > NBA Awards & League Leaders > Regular Season MVP.

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The NBA MVP Favorite for 2025

At the top of the NBA MVP odds stand two remarkable players. One has achieved the MVP honor three times, while the other was the runner-up last season. The dynamic could shift this year, as betting odds suggest SGA is in a prime position.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-5000)

Recently, the Thunder experienced back-to-back losses for the first time since November, marking only the second instance this season! The defeats were against Houston and the Los Angeles Lakers, yet ‘SGA’ was determined not to let the downturn extend into a third game. He showcased his brilliance with 42 points, six rebounds, and six assists in a decisive 16-point victory against the Lakers on April 8.

Although voter fatigue may impact this year's MVP selection, it shouldn't overshadow the incredible achievements of Gilgeous-Alexander who leads the league in scoring with an astonishing average of 32.7 points. SGA boasts an impressive 51.9% shooting percentage from the field, an outstanding feat for a guard, along with a 37.5% success rate from three-point range.

Additionally, he maintains a staggering free throw percentage of 89.8%. Alongside his scoring prowess, ‘SGA’ averages 6.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.7 steals, contributing significantly to the best defensive unit in the NBA. It’s notable that despite holding the ball often, Gilgeous-Alexander records only 2.4 turnovers per outing.

He deserves recognition as an impressive candidate, but I believe the betting odds are disproportionately high for the Canadian. Some voters have expressed uncertainty about their choices. Nevertheless, considering the achievements of the team, which I value despite not having a vote, Gilgeous-Alexander stands as a strong favorite for this accolade.

The Primary Contender for the NBA MVP Award

Nikola Jokić, Denver (+1300)

It’s a massive credit to the season Jokic is demonstrating remarkable performance, emphasizing that this race is indeed competitive. He ranks third in scoring with an average of 30.0 points, matches for second in rebounds at 12.8, is second in assists with 10.2, and ranks second in steals at 1.8. He is also shooting at an impressive rate of 57.7% from the field and 41.5% from beyond the arc, along with an 80.3% free throw percentage.

Having come close to winning the MVP in recent seasons, the 'Joker' is poised to finish this campaign with impressive triple-double averages.

While the Nuggets do have a reasonably good record by their standards, their recent poor performance led to changes in coaching staff, with Malone and Booth being dismissed. The defensive setup is struggling, and although Jokic contributes some steals, his reputation as a strong defender is lacking.

Debate surrounds how much of the Nuggets' challenges rest on Jokic's shoulders. Even though he may not excel defensively, he remains central to an offense that has been without Jamal Murray for a significant part of the season, and Michael Porter Jr. has also shown inconsistency throughout his career. Nevertheless, the Nuggets rank fourth in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. , thanks to the brilliance of Jokic.

The current difficulties faced by the Nuggets, coupled with potential voter fatigue, are likely to be significant factors in why what would typically be a standout season for Jokic might not secure him the MVP title.

NBA MVP Prediction and Betting Selection for 2025

These two players have distinguished themselves as the top contenders in the NBA this season. Gilgeous-Alexander is poised for multiple MVP nominations in the future and is just beginning to reach the peak of his talents. Conversely, Jokic has dominated the league for the past four to five years, potentially having his most exceptional season so far.

However, as I mentioned, the factors of team performance and voter fatigue will heavily weigh on this award. I hold Jokic in high regard and personally consider him the MVP due to his exceptional performance despite being surrounded by a less than stellar team. Yet, I suspect voters might not share this view, primarily because of Oklahoma City’s impressive standing. This is not to diminish Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact, as he has undeniably been the pivotal player and driving force behind his team.

Thus, I am leaning towards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as my choice for the NBA MVP, but I wouldn't advise placing a bet at -5000 due to the lack of value.

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About the Author
Finn Archer profile picture
Finn Archer
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Finn is a writer with over four years of experience publishing articles under the alias Phil Bowman. He is not only passionate about sports but also an avid bettor, particularly interested in soccer. Nonetheless, he enjoys exploring anything involving a ball, bat, or boxing gloves! His writing focuses on assisting bettors in learning from their experiences and promoting responsible gambling. Finn is currently based in Europe.
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02025 NBA MVP Odds – Can Jokić Catch “SGA”?
2025 NBA MVP Odds

PLAYER ODDS Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) -5000 .