Betting Predictions and Odds for the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Will Journalism Take the Crown?

Journalism (+350)

Per the latest futures markets at Kentucky Derby betting sites , the field is led by Journalism . A three-year-old horse driven by Umberto Rispoli has emerged as the current favorite after achieving victory in the San Anita Derby (Gr. 1) on April 5.

With a four-race winning streak, Journalism is displaying exceptional form as we head into the first Saturday of May. He narrowly won the $500,000 race against Baeza by a margin of three-quarters of a length. My only reservation about this win is that Journalism bested a competition that wasn't particularly strong.

"Remember this. Journalism is the top contender in the western circuit after his Santa Anita Derby victory!\" pic.twitter.com/1S7Q5r1Dyi

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) April 6, 2025

He was a considerable favorite during the race, with Citizen Bull and Barnes also listed among the favorites. While Citizen Bull is impressive, Journalism might require more to claim victory at the Kentucky Derby. Baeza, ranked at +2000 to win the Derby, was his closest competitor toward the end.

Regardless, Journalism boasts three graded race victories and has won four out of five races, including titles at the Los Alamitos Futurity (Gr. 2) and San Felipe Stakes (Gr. 2). Additionally, he has achieved a speed rating of 105 or better in his last four races! His performance during the Santa Anita Stakes, where he hit 105, should be competitive at Churchill Downs.

However, there may be more beneficial betting options for your 2025 Kentucky Derby selections!

Sovereignty (+600)

Consideration for the Kentucky Derby 2025 odds requires keeping an eye on Sovereignty ! Despite finishing second in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1), Sovereignty might see an improvement on May 3.

He ended up 1 ¼ lengths behind Tappan Street in that highly lucrative $1,000,000 race late in March. One positive takeaway for Sovereignty was his impressive push in the final stretch.

At the ¾ pole, he was fifth but showed significant improvement as the race progressed. Had the race continued another furlong, he might have clinched the victory!

"If you're looking for a faster route to Louisville, take a trip down Tappan Street!\"

Tappan Street (2-1) emerged victorious in the 74th edition of the Florida Derby. 🍊

📺 CNBC & Peacock pic.twitter.com/A4xPUoQPE1

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) March 29, 2025

Sovereignty displayed additional potential after crossing the finish line, and considering it’s a 1 ¼ mile race, expect him to be in contention during the final moments. The pivotal factor for him will be his positioning, as navigating traffic can be a challenge during the Kentucky Derby. If Sovereignty can find room to maneuver, his late speed could be decisive.

It’s worth noting that Sovereignty hasn't yet exhibited outright speed in his five previous outings. He has two victories from those starts but hasn’t surpassed a 100-speed figure. His best speed rating was 99 from a victory in the Street Sense Stakes (Gr. 2) on October 27, 2024, followed by a neck win in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. 2).

Sovereignty is indeed capable of winning, but he’ll need the ideal circumstances to reach the finish line first. Managing to navigate through traffic is crucial; should an opening arise, he’s competitive for the title of the 151st Kentucky Derby!

Luxor Cafe (+1000)

Last year, Japan's entry Forever Young participated in the Derby at Churchill Downs. Forever Young put forth commendable effort against a strong field but fell short, finishing in 3rd place. Luxor Cafe may just be as good or even superior to Forever Young, suggesting an exciting competition ahead!

Owned by Koichi Nishikawa, Luxor Cafe arrives at the Kentucky Derby in exceptional condition. He has won four races in a row, most recently triumphing at Nakayama in the Fukuryu Stakes. Since his debut in August 2024, Luxor Cafe has stepped up to the challenge finishing 4th, 2nd, and then achieving victories in his last five outings, remaining undefeated this year.

Moreover, two of those victories came against the UAE Derby winner, Admire Daytona! Defeating such a strong competitor twice is quite an achievement.

Luxor Cafe delivered a commanding performance in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, clinching his spot in the Kentucky Derby! 🏇🏾🌹 A brilliant display from this son of AMERICAN PHAROAH. Congratulations to his team! #homeofchampions #coolmoresires

pic.twitter.com/ayldfNFnzp

— Coolmore America (@coolmoreamerica) March 29, 2025

A primary concern regarding Luxor Cafe is that he has yet to compete against elite US opponents. Nevertheless, being sired by American Pharoah, he boasts an impressive lineage.

American Pharoah famously secured the Triple Crown in 2015 and is celebrated as one of the greatest thoroughbreds in history.

As we enter May, he is radiating confidence and appears to be in the best form of his career. Will the long journey from Japan to Louisville hinder him? So far, it hasn't seemed to affect him. In any case, Luxor Cafe shouldn’t be overlooked — his Kentucky Derby odds of +1000 offer some compelling value!

Sandman (+1000)

Another promising pick for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with substantial value is Sandman . If you're in search of a horse that's showing continual improvement and nearing peak performance, Sandman deserves your attention.

Initially, the Mark Casse trainee faced a rocky start in his career, recording finishes of 5th, 1st, 5th, and 3rd in his first four races. Notably, during those initial outings, Sandman failed to reach a 100-speed figure, but his trajectory shifted rapidly.

In his last four races, Sandman recorded times of 97, 100, 101, and most recently, 104!

Sandman (7/2) surges during the final stretch of the Arkansas Derby to claim the win! 💨 pic.twitter.com/odK78GVIyQ

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) March 30, 2025

This offspring of Tapit delivered his best performance in his hardest race yet, showing strong form during the Arkansas Derby (Gr. 1) as he took victory by 2 ½ lengths over Publisher. He closed the race strongly, showcasing a commanding finish in the stretch. Tapit's progeny often excel at longer distances, and Sandman exemplifies that trait.

My only reservation about Sandman is that he has a bit of a temperament. He possesses significant energy, much like Tapit, and there is a chance he could become distracted on Derby Day. In his most recent workout, Sandman didn’t seem fully engaged, clocking in at 1:02:40 over five furlongs.

On the plus side, he will be ridden by Jose Ortiz, an excellent jockey known for steering horses successfully through challenging situations. Ultimately, the outcome relies on which version of Sandman shows up on race day. If he is focused and ready, he stands a legitimate chance of victory, but there are uncertainties surrounding this horse.