Investigating the NBA Draft's Fairness – An Insightful TSG Analysis

1. The Luka Doncic Conspiracy Theory

After the Dallas Mavericks' surprising win in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, there’s no better place to begin our examination.

1.8% chance. #MFFL pic.twitter.com/QHqjP4DlR9

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 13, 2025

In a remarkable turn of events this season, the Mavericks participated in one of the strangest trades in NBA history. They involved themselves in a deal that saw them sending Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris to the LA Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a future first-round draft pick in 2029. sent Luka Doncic The trade shocked the sports community as it was completely unexpected and didn't seem logical. At that time, Luka was just 25 years old and was returning from a finals appearance, making it baffling that they would trade him for an aging, frequently injured veteran like Davis plus just one first-round draft selection.

While I greatly appreciate Anthony Davis and consider him one of the biggest enigmas in the league, from Dallas' standpoint, trading him away under these conditions appeared illogical due to his injury history. A thorough query around the league would undoubtedly have led them to receive a much more favorable deal.

Many speculated that this trade was designed by the NBA with the intention of pairing Luka with LeBron on the league's most popular team.

However, this theory comes with a critical question: what benefit would the Mavericks actually see from this move? The answer conspiracy theorists came up with was: Cooper Flagg! declining TV ratings Cooper Flagg, the former Blue Devil star, is among the most sought-after prospects in over two decades. He recently made headlines as one of the few freshmen to win the National Player of the Year award and is anticipated to shine as an NBA superstar.

Remarkably, the Mavericks managed to secure the chance to draft him after possessing just a 1.8% probability of landing the top selection! This raises eyebrows and certainly adds fuel to the fire of the belief that the NBA Draft Lottery is not above manipulation.

Yet, the mere improbability of an event doesn’t necessarily imply it’s impossible, nor should it automatically validate a conspiracy theory. The NBA’s challenge lies in the fact that this isn't an isolated incident over the past quarter-century. Let's review some other intriguing coincidences (or perhaps not?).

Interestingly, another conspiring theory that supports the perspective that the NBA Draft may be rigged again involves LeBron and Anthony Davis. Back in 2019, James desperately needed assistance to secure victories with the Lakers.

Coincidentally, during this period, Anthony Davis was feeling discontent in New Orleans and sought a trade. The Pelicans shipped him to the Lakers that summer, leading the duo to clinch an NBA Championship in 2020.

2. The Zion Williamson Theory of Conspiracy

The trade itself didn’t spark as much outrage as the one involving Luka, but there was a notable twist: in 2019, the Pelicans won the NBA Draft Lottery and were afforded the opportunity to select Zion Williamson.

Zion was hailed as the most anticipated prospect since LeBron entered the NBA, which led conspiracy theorists to wonder if New Orleans landing the top pick had anything to do with transferring AD to the Lakers.

While this theory seems less believable than the Luka narrative, it’s worth mentioning that the Pelicans only had a mere 6% chance of securing the number one pick.

Again, the idea of pairing LeBron with another major talent in Los Angeles, the league's biggest market, may be viewed as a tactic to stimulate greater interest in the NBA.

The third theory connecting the NBA Draft Lottery and alleged rigging once more involves LeBron. His decision to leave Cleveland and build a super team in Miami back in 2010 dramatically shifted the entire basketball landscape.

LeBron James Takes the Leap: Destination Miami

3. The Theory Regarding the Cleveland Cavaliers

This pivotal move remains one of the most consequential in NBA history, effectively steering the direction of the entire decade of the 2010s. While LeBron enjoyed immense success with the Heat, the Cavaliers faced struggles in the ensuing years.

Going back to 1985, when the lottery was introduced, I found no evidence supporting a similar occurrence. The Cavaliers essentially struck gold multiple times within a short span, which raises suspicions.

Conspiracy enthusiasts postulate that this was a form of restitution for the Cavaliers' loss of LeBron, or perhaps even a calculated step to assist him upon his return (which in fact, he did).

Regardless of personal beliefs, the Cavaliers snagging three top picks over four seasons with chances lower than 3% in two instances certainly seems dubious.

Next, let's take a comprehensive look at all results from the NBA Draft Lottery dating back to 2000 to see if any unusual patterns emerge.

Here’s a complete list of NBA Draft Lottery champions since the year 2000 alongside their probability of getting the number one pick:

Philadelphia 76ers (via Nets and Celtics)