Analysis of the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Group H: A Walk in the Park for Real Madrid?

Group H Winner Odds

Real Madrid (-700) stands as the dominant favorite to claim the top position in Group H. Based on the best soccer betting sites , there’s an 87.5% implied probability that Real Madrid will secure first place . Given the teams they're up against, this percentage might even be conservative.

Al Hilal (+900) is trailing far behind in second place, with a mere 10% probability of achieving a significant upset against Real Madrid. Meanwhile, Al Hilal and Red Bull Salzburg (+950) have nearly identical odds of taking the top spot in Group H, as Salzburg currently holds a 9.5% chance of defeating Real Madrid.

Representing Mexico, CF Pachuca (+2500) faces an uphill battle to emerge victorious. I confidently assert that their likelihood of winning in Group H is very slim, with only a 3.8% implied probability. However, the question remains: can they make it to the knockout rounds?

To Qualify from Group H Odds

With Real Madrid (-3500) being the clear frontrunner for qualification, a lot hangs in the balance for the other teams trailing behind the famed club. Real Madrid possesses a substantial 97.2% probability of advancing to the knockout stage . Unless some unforeseen circumstances, such as an illness, affects their roster, they are on a sure path to the Round of 16.

Al Hilal (+110) and Salzburg (+118) are locked in a close race for the second qualifying position from Group H. The Saudi team has a 47.6% implied probability of advancing, with Salzburg closely following at 45.9%. Though Pachuca (+310) is unlikely to win Group H, they still have a solid chance of qualifying at 24.4%.

Real Madrid – Los Blancos’ Group to Lose

• • League: La Liga (Spain)
  • Manager: Xabi Alonso
  • Key Players: Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham

What could potentially interfere with Real Madrid’s triumph in Group H? Barring any incredible and unforeseen events, they are expected to navigate through this group without any challenges. In fact, I believe Real Madrid could field a secondary team and still dominate Group H effortlessly.

If Real Madrid aims to showcase their supremacy, they have enough talented players to achieve that. The formidable trio of Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Jude Bellingham has the prowess to outperform Al Hilal, Salzburg, and Pachuca significantly.

Kylian Mbappé has now set the record for the most goals scored in a debut season with Real Madrid, reaching an impressive total of 40 goals 👏. pic.twitter.com/TwSqTe1TmM

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) May 14, 2025

Even though they were unable to surpass Barcelona in La Liga this season, Real Madrid executed a commendable campaign. They concluded the season with 84 points, four points behind their arch-rivals. Overall, Real Madrid they ranked second in La Liga with 78 goals scored and allowed only 38 goals, making them third in defensive performance.

Is there anything that might hinder Real Madrid from securing the top of Group H? The only scenario I could envision is if they disregard the Club World Cup altogether, which might leave a tiny window of opportunity for others. Nonetheless, it seems likely that their motivation will be sufficient to resolve their group matches with ease.

Al Hilal– The Best of the Rest?

• • League: Saudi Arabian Pro League
  • Manager: Simone Inzaghi
  • Key Players: Aleksandar Mitrovic, Salem Al-Dawsari, Malcom

While Al Hilal may not have faced the same level of competition in the Saudi Arabian Pro League as Real Madrid did in La Liga, the league is evolving and could potentially be ranked among the top ten leagues in the next decade.

There's substantial financial backing for acquiring elite players in Saudi Arabia, but until the league nurtures its homegrown talents effectively, it will likely continue to trail European leagues.

Al Hilal strives for global recognition, so much so that they recently attempted to lure Napoli’s Victor Osimhen recruit players from Saudi Arabia just a few days ago. Although the efforts fell short, it highlights their determination and commitment to performing well during the tournament.

The team concluded the season in second place after competing against Al-Ittihad, finishing with a record of 23 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, totaling 75 points. They’ve managed to win four out of their last six matches, with one draw and one defeat. Key players like Aleksandar Mitrovic and Salem Al-Dawsari should pose a significant threat to the other teams in Group H.

Aleksandar Mitrovic for Serbia:

👕 100 games
⚽️ 62 goals

Serbian goal machine 🇷🇸

Will anyone surpass his scoring record? Perhaps not in our lifetime. pic.twitter.com/TYcTvx7YhH

— Serbian Football (@SerbianFooty) June 10, 2025

Don’t overlook the creativity of Malcom and Marcos Leonardo as well. This roster has the capability of scoring, although breaching Real Madrid’s defense may prove to be quite the task. I’m optimistic about their chances against Salzburg and Pachuca, nonetheless.

Red Bull Salzburg– Are They Motivated?

• • League: Austrian Bundesliga
  • Manager: Zsolt Low
  • Key Players: Nene Dorgeles, Petar Ratkov, Oscar Gloukh

After a decade of dominance in the Austrian Bundesliga, Salzburg experienced a disappointing season in 2024 and 2025, failing to secure the title. They did not meet their goals, finishing with a 16 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses record behind SK Sturm Graz.

My main concern regarding Salzburg centers around their motivation to travel overseas for the Club World Cup. Many teams in this tournament might treat it as nothing more than an exhibition.

Considering their lackluster season in the Austrian Bundesliga, I wouldn't be shocked if Salzburg doesn’t perform to their potential. After all, they couldn’t find their rhythm throughout the league season, so what could change once they arrive in the United States?

Salzburg concluded the Austrian Bundesliga They ranked fourth in the league for goals scored with 53 and conceded 36, placing second defensively. Fans anticipated more offensive strength from the squad, but they often struggled to score consistently. Nene Dorgeles and Oscar Gloukh were the only two players to reach double digits in goals!

🚨 Tottenham is the latest club expressing interest in Red Bull Salzburg's winger Dorgeles Nene.

The 22-year-old is expected to cost somewhere between €20m-€25m. Interest has also come from Leverkusen, Freiburg, Lazio, and Fiorentina. 🇩🇪🇮🇹

(Source: @TEAMtalk ) pic.twitter.com/GKT1Xb5vgl

-- Transfer News Live (@DeadlineDayLive) June 10, 2025

Salzburg does have some promising talents in their roster. Dorgeles is a highly coveted midfielder from Mali who will definitely be an exciting player to observe during the Club World Cup. Nevertheless, it's unlikely he'll have enough support to challenge Real Madrid effectively, leaving their chances of advancing uncertain.

Pachuca– Impossible Assignment

• • League: Liga MX (Mexico)
  • Manager: Jaime Lozano
  • Key Players: Salomon Rondon, John Kennedy, Oussama Idrissi

For Pachuca to seize victory in Group H, it would require an astounding lack of performance from the other teams. The betting lines for Group H suggest Pachuca has a 3.8% chance to win, but I would estimate it closer to 1%.

Liga MX’s Pachuca finished the last season with an 11 wins, 8 draws, and 15 losses record, landing them in 12th place within the top Mexican league. They fell behind Toluca by nine points for the top spot after 34 matches. Interestingly, they were the sole top 12 club to conclude with a negative goal differential, posting a -3 goal difference during the 2024-25 season.

Following their impressive top finish in Liga MX during the 2021-22 season, Pachuca has seen a downward trend and is now finding it challenging to keep up with their leading competitors. Salomon Rondon Their star, who scored 14 goals and assisted five times across 30 appearances, will need to excel if Pachuca wants to stay competitive in Group H.

Rondón Comes Through When It Counts 🇻🇪

A late goal from Salomón Rondón pushes Venezuela closer to the World Cup playoffs after a 2-0 victory against Bolivia.

The dream continues — La Vinotinto is just a step away from reaching their first-ever World Cup 🏆.

Catch @salorondon23 with @Tuzos in the… pic.twitter.com/ItcWSxuGRJ

— DAZN Football (@DAZNFootball) June 7, 2025

Aside from Rondón, John Kennedy will need to have an outstanding tournament for Pachuca to have any shot at qualifying. However, depth issues pose a serious challenge, and this could be their downfall in the Club World Cup. Their roster lacks the necessary talent to pose a threat to others in Group H.

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Pachuca ends up with zero points in this group.