An analysis of Group F in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup: Can Dortmund easily take the lead?

Group F Winner Odds

Borussia Dortmund, a premier club in Germany's Bundesliga, is heavily favored to win Group F, standing at -260. This means that Borussia Dortmund carries an implied probability of 72.2% to top the group .

According to the best soccer betting sites In reality, only Borussia Dortmund and Fluminense RJ (+240) have a authentic shot at winning Group F. The Brazilian club trails behind Dortmund, with a 29.4% implied chance of achieving the highest point total.

Following these two teams, Ulsan HD FC (+1500) and Mamelodi Sundowns (+2500) are considerable underdogs. It seems they are just glad to participate, and my expectations for their success are low. Nonetheless, they've landed in one of the more competitive groups.

To Qualify from Group F Odds

It's quite clear that Borussia Dortmund (-1400) holds a dominating position to qualify from Group F. As the favorites, it's evident they'll likely secure a place in the next round. With odds at -1400, Borussia Dortmund enjoys a 99.3% implied chance of advancing .

Similarly, Fluminense RJ (-350) also has a strong likelihood of moving on to the knockout stages. With a 77.8% chance of winning, this Brazilian Serie A team is in a good place within Group F. They have the luck of the draw, particularly when facing Ulsan HD FC (+275) and Mamelodi Sundowns (+450), who should present manageable challenges.

Borussia Dortmund– The Clear Winner?

• • League: Bundesliga (Germany)
  • Manager: Niko Kovac
  • Key Players: Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beier, Nico Schlotterbeck

It's been more than ten years since Dortmund last claimed the Bundesliga title, yet they have had several commendable seasons since that time. Dortmund was the runner-up in both the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons and has just completed a robust campaign in Germany.

Dortmund ended the German league with a 17-6-11 record, marking a solid season that enabled them to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. While Bayern Munich dominated the Bundesliga, leaving the title out of their reach, BVB possesses enough talent to excel in Group F.

Sharpshooting striker Serhou Guirassy He is set to compete in the Club World Cup and is expected to dismantle the weaker defenses present in this group. Guirassy scored 21 goals within 30 Bundesliga matches this season and added an impressive 13 goals in just 14 Champions League appearances.

45 Games
43 Goal Contributions
34 Goals
9 Assists

Serhou Guirassy for BVB 24/25. pic.twitter.com/A7T2by7Esc

— Borussia Dortmund (@BVB) May 23, 2025

With the formidable Nico Schlotterbeck anchoring their defense, Dortmund boasts both the strongest offense and defense in Group F. They finished the Bundesliga with an impressive goal differential of +20, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per match.

Dortmund approaches the Club World Cup riding a wave of momentum, having won their last six matches and remaining unbeaten since a loss to Barcelona on April 9! Their quality and depth give the Germans a significant advantage, making them likely candidates for an easy victory.

Fluminense RJ– Dortmund’s Only Threat?

• • League: Brasileirão Série A (Brazil)
  • Manager: Renato Gaucho
  • Key Players: Jhon Arias, Rene, Kevin Serna

Fluminense looks to maintain positive momentum after achieving good results in Brazil during their recent campaign, starting with 20 points from a 6-2-3 record in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.

The team seems to be improving after a disappointing 13th-place finish in the previous 2023-24 season, regressing from a campaign in which they had 16 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses. However, Fluminense seems to be on an upward trajectory now.

Led by Colombian forward Kevin Serna The team has maintained efficient front-line performances. In his second season, Serna has already scored three goals in nine appearances, significantly improving from last year when he netted just three times in 16 games.

WHAT A PLAY AND GOAL BY COLOMBIAN KEVIN SERNA! pic.twitter.com/wiwpC74dea

— Fluminense F.C. (@FluminenseFC) December 8, 2024

If Serna can sustain his scoring streak, along with the excellent play from John Arias, Fluminense could potentially surprise some teams. They'll need the same level of focus and energy that led them to win the Copa Libertadores last season. That team had significant experience and played cohesively, showcasing great teamwork.

Some members of that victorious squad are still present, though their performance has been uneven. With 15 goals scored and 12 conceded, they sit at the level of being an average Brazilian club. Nevertheless, Fluminense can be very dangerous when they hit their peak performance.

Yet, I am unsure if they possess the firepower necessary to defeat Dortmund!

Ulsan HD FC– Upset in Group F?

• • League: K League 1 (South Korea)
  • Manager: Kim Pangon
  • Key Players: Erick, Heo Yool, Darijan Bojanic

Ulsan HD will need an extraordinary turn of events if they hope to pull off what would be an upset. Not only have they fallen behind in the group stage, but even qualifying for the knockout rounds would be quite an achievement.

The betting odds for the 2025 Club World Cup Group F reflect this belief, showing that Ulsan faces long odds to advance. Their current record stands at 8-5-6, giving them 29 points in South Korea's K League 1. Presently, Ulsan is six points behind Jeonbuk for the top position in the league.

Ulsan’s approach focuses heavily on a strong defense and minimizing the opposing team's scoring opportunities. They like to secure an early lead and then protect it through solid defensive play. This season, Ulsan averaged 1.21 goals scored and conceded 1.00 per game.

⚽️🔵⚪️ ERICK SCORES THE WINNING GOAL FOR ULSAN

Our striker performed excellently, marking his fifth goal for Ulsan HD FC in today’s away victory by 1-2 during the 13th round of K League 1. #EtminanBrazilFamily #EtminanBrazilAroundTheWorld #WorkHard #GodBless #KLeague1 pic.twitter.com/VpavkUD7VM

— Etminan Brazil (@etminanbrazil) May 11, 2025

However, this strategy backfired in their latest match, resulting in a 3-1 defeat to Jeonbuk. Erick is Ulsan's only legitimate offensive threat at the moment. He has netted 8 of Ulsan's 23 goals for the season. When teams manage to neutralize him, Ulsan struggles to find effective scoring options.

While Ulsan might manage to frustrate Fluminense for a stretch and could even secure a win over Mamelodi Sundowns, their chances against the might of Dortmund are slim. I wouldn’t recommend betting on Ulsan in any form for your Club World Cup wagers.

Mamelodi Sundowns FC– Can They Record a Point?

• • League: Premiership (South Africa)
  • Manager: Miguel Cardoso
  • Key Players: Lucas Ribeiro Costa, Iqraam Rayners, Arthur

The main concern for Mamelodi Sundowns is whether they can secure just a single point — not about winning Group F or even making it to the knockout stages. Such goals seem too far out of reach for Mamelodi Sundowns. Successfully qualifying for the Club World Cup is already a major achievement for this team; anything more is considered an added success.

Playing in South Africa’s top league, Mamelodi Sundowns finished first, boasting an impressive record of 24 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, totaling 73 points. They have consistently dominated the league since the 2017-18 season!

Mamelodi Sundowns have remarkably clinched the Premiership title for eight consecutive years. While this is an impressive feat, it is important to recognize that the level of competition in South Africa is relatively low.

16- Lucas Ribeiro Costa has become the Golden Boot winner for the 2024/25 season by scoring 16 goals, making him the first non-African player to achieve this in a PSL season. Truly remarkable. pic.twitter.com/3hXScN9k7T

— OptaJabu (@OptaJabu) May 29, 2025

The team boasts a trio of dangerous playmakers, including Lucas Ribeiro Costa, Iqraam Rayners, and Arthur. However, they have primarily benefited from playing against poor defenses in the South African Premiership. This won't translate well against teams like Dortmund and Fluminense.

To address the original question, yes, Mamelodi Sundowns might secure a draw against Ulsan. However, anything beyond that appears to be out of their grasp as considerable underdogs.